December 8, 2024 12:01 IST
First published: December 8, 2024 at 12:00 IST
As rebel forces close in on Damascus, another Arab leader’s personal and political fate is being sealed. President Bashar al-Assad’s future remains uncertain with the fall of the second-largest city, Aleppo, and reports that rebel forces entered Damascus on Saturday afternoon. Indeed, his ancestral hometown, Qardaha in the northwestern province of Latakia – where his father Hafez and brother Basil are buried in a family mausoleum – already is. Under the control of rebel forces. What will happen to Bashar al-Assad, who has ruled Syria with an iron fist for nearly a quarter of a century?
On March 6, 2011, Assad’s viability faced a serious challenge after popular demonstrations erupted in the southern city of Daraa, near the Jordanian border. Syrian leaders survived the Arab Spring for more than a decade, in part because of Assad-Army-Alawite commitment and loyalty triumvirate, and together they swam and survived. When this proved insufficient, Assad sought military assistance from Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah. A decade of active Russian intervention beginning in September 2015 weakened the Assad regime and prevented the international community, particularly the United Nations, from actively intervening to end the civil war. For their part, Iranian and Hezbollah fighters helped government forces recover and hold off rebel gains.
However, some Arab countries criticized him for not “listening” to the voices of Syrians and prioritizing individual survival in Syria. The Assad regime persisted, forcing the Arab League to withdraw its November 2011 decision to expel Syria and readmit it in May 2023, signaling a return to Syrian Arab fold. Saudi Arabia hosted Syrian officials, and the UAE also hosted President Assad. Restoration of Iran-Saudi Arabia Relations – China’s mediation in March 2023 partially improved the situation. The events of the last few days have radically changed the situation.
The unfolding Syrian drama comes against the backdrop of a radically changed Middle Eastern order following the October 7, 2023, terror attack by Hamas. First, despite massive civilian casualties and hardships, Israel’s military strategy led to some concrete and radical changes: the significant destruction and downgrading of Hamas and Hezbollah’s terror infrastructure and the elimination of Ismail Haniyah, Hassan Nasrallah, and key figures of the extremist group. Yahya Sinwar. Although these measures have not eliminated the threats, Hamas and Hezbollah have suffered greatly. Two, Hezbollah’s weakness and the unpopularity of its parallel foreign policy directed by Iran forced the Shiite militant group to accept a temporary truce with Israel; More importantly, it called for Hezbollah fighters to retreat beyond the Litani River, or about 30 kilometers north of the Israel-Lebanon border. Indeed, Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian civil war was unpopular within both Syria and Lebanon, and the latter hosted more than 1.5 million Syrian refugees, roughly 25 percent of the Lebanese population. In their view, by rallying around the Assad regime, Hezbollah has contributed to the influx of Syrian refugees. Discontent with the Syrian civil war, some believe, contributed to the intelligence leaks that led to Nasrallah’s assassination.
Three, the Islamic Republic of Iran, which leads the anti-Israel forces in the Middle East under the banner of the Axis of Resistance, has weakened internally. Allaying regional fears, it chose not to respond to an October 26 Israeli strike believed to have been carried out by 100 fighter jets against 20 Iranian targets. Asking its proxies to resist by maintaining strategic silence indicates the weakness of Iranian strategy. President Massoud Pezhekian represents the pragmatic side that resists the more forceful strategy pursued by Tehran’s hardliners.
There are early signs of an Iranian Revolutionary Guards withdrawal from Syria. Moreover, Russia’s ability to garner additional support for Assad, preoccupied with Ukraine, is also limited.
As the Assad regime collapses, two things are certain. One, Syria, as we have known it geographically since the end of World War II, is no longer possible. Second, Bashar Assad destroyed his father’s lasting legacy: political stability. Hafez lost the Golan Heights to Israel in 1967 and now Bashar is losing the entire country to the rebels. Will Syria and the wider Middle East be better off without Assad? There are no easy answers but probably not.
The author teaches Contemporary Middle East at Jawaharlal Nehru University