Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing increasing pressure from his own Liberal Party to resign after his top minister abruptly quit and criticized his handling of the budget. Trudeau has led the country for nearly a decade, but has become widely unpopular in recent years over a range of issues, including the high cost of living and rising inflation.
Trudeau’s party has no mechanism to oust him in the short term. He could resign, or his party could be forced from power by a “no-confidence” vote in parliament that could lead to an election in favor of the opposition Conservative Party.
If his party survives the vote in parliament – which looks increasingly unlikely – Trudeau could choose to stay on as prime minister until the election.
After a growing number of Liberal lawmakers called on Trudeau to resign on Tuesday, the country’s Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said, “We all need to give him a little time to reflect.”
Here’s a closer look at possible paths forward for Trudeau and Canada.
Trudeau could resign and allow other Liberals to compete for his office
If Trudeau resigns, which political analysts consider a likely scenario, the Liberals will have to choose an interim prime minister to lead the country at least until the election.
It is not yet clear who would be the most likely candidate for any interim role.
In the long term, the man who will seek power in the Liberal Party after Trudeau is Mark Carney, former head of the Bank of Canada and later the Bank of England. Carney had long been interested in entering politics and becoming prime minister.
Another possible candidate is Trudeau’s new finance minister, Dominic LeBlanc. A former public safety minister, and close friend of Trudeau, LeBlanc recently joined the prime minister at a dinner with US President-elect Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago.
Concerns about Trudeau’s leadership grew Monday when former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland left his cabinet. Freeland has been highly critical of Trudeau’s handling of the economy in the face of steep tariffs threatened by Trump. The country’s housing minister also resigned shortly before Freeland announced her decision.
“My guess is that if another minister or two goes, he’s toast, he’ll be forced to resign,” said Canadian historian Robert Bothwell.
Opposition parties could vote to remove Trudeau’s grip on power. With voters deeply unhappy, parliament has the right to try to oust Trudeau’s Liberal Party from power by holding a “no confidence” vote that would trigger an early election. And if a majority of parliament voted against his government, Trudeau would be “wiped out at the polls,” Bothwell said.
The walls are rapidly closing in on Trudeau
Because the Liberals do not hold a clear majority in parliament, they have for years depended on the support of the leftist New Democratic Party to pass legislation and stay in power. But that support has evaporated — the NDP leader has called for Trudeau to resign — and that clears the way for a vote of “no confidence” in Parliament.
After Tuesday, parliament will be closed for recess until the end of next month, and a “no-confidence” vote could be scheduled sometime after that.
The Conservative Party, which has a commanding lead in the polls over the Liberals, has not publicly called for Trudeau’s resignation. And because of tactics the Liberal Party may deploy to delay a “no-confidence” vote, the Conservatives may not be able to force it for a couple of months, said University of Toronto professor emeritus Nelson Wiseman.
A vote of no confidence will trigger an immediate election
Trudeau may try to cling to power. The political winds are overwhelmingly against Trudeau, but he could theoretically hang on for a long time.
While a growing number want him to resign, one longtime supporter, Liberal MP James Maloney, said Trudeau has the support of his base in parliament.
“Like most families, sometimes we fight around the holidays. But of course, like most families, we find our way through it,” Trudeau said. “I love this country. I love this party so much. i love you “
If Trudeau’s Liberal Party does not survive a no-confidence vote in the coming months – an unlikely scenario – the last federal election could be held on October 20.
The possibility of an election earlier than that has increased. “I expect an election in late spring, unless Trudeau decides to dissolve parliament and plunge into the election before then,” Wiseman said.
With the Liberals’ grip on power waning, experts say they are likely to put the Conservatives in a minority government at the next election that will depend on other parties to pass legislation. The latest Nanos poll showed the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 43% to 23%, suggesting the Conservatives could win a majority of seats.
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