Cairo: Even when hopes are high, a lot can go wrong when a country tries to oust a longtime dictator and start anew. Middle Eastern and North African nations that have attempted transitions to democracy in recent years can attest to this.
Now it’s Syria’s turn to try to fix it.
It is difficult to learn lessons from the experiences of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Sudan since the wave of Arab Spring uprisings that began in 2011. Each country’s dynamics are different, but there are common themes.
In some cases, the “revolution” was lost when armed factions fought it out for power or a powerful man emerged who became ambitious. In others, the military refused to control civilians or foreign countries fueled the conflict by supporting one side or the other with money and weapons.
Before making major decisions, questions must be asked that can provoke volatile reactions: How do you deal with the old police state – pure or compromised? What will you do first, hold an election or write a constitution? And how to fix the crippled economy full of corruption?
So far, Syria’s transition has been surprisingly smooth. But it’s only been two weeks since the ouster of President Bashar Assad, and many such threats are lurking in the background.
The rebels who ousted Assad are rooted in radical Islamist ideology, and have vowed to create a pluralistic system, but it is unclear how they plan to share power.
Other armed factions – or remnants of Assad’s formidable security forces – could also attack. And it remains to be seen whether the Kurds, who previously held an autonomous regime, will be brought back to Guna, especially since Turkey strongly opposes the main Kurdish faction.
Groups like the Alawites, to which Assad’s family belongs, fear being squeezed out of any role, or worse, targeted for retaliation.
Here’s a look at the power dynamics in these other countries:
Yemen
Protests forced Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh to resign in November 2011, ending his 33-year rule. Under a deal brokered by Gulf countries, Saleh was granted immunity and transferred his powers to his vice president, Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi.
Hadi would serve as acting president for two years, during which a new constitution would be written, which would eventually lead to elections. But Saleh, who remains in the capital Sanaa, has allied with his long-time enemy – the Houthi rebels in the north – in an attempt to regain power.
Backed by Saleh loyalists, the Houthis captured Sana’a and much of the country’s population center. Hadi and his government fled the south, where they were based in the city of Aden, and took control of southern and much of eastern Yemen.
A coalition led by Saudi Arabia launched a bombing campaign aimed at restoring Hadi’s government. Since then, Yemen has been wracked by a civil war that has killed more than 150,000 people and caused one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
The war became a proxy conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Yemen remained divided between the Houthis, who later overthrew Saleh’s camp and killed Saleh and Hadi’s government. Various militias nominally support Hadi but have their own interests and are funded by the United Arab Emirates.
Libya
Libya’s Moammar Gaddafi met the most violent end of any powerful figure in the region. An uprising turned into a civil war, and then, backed by NATO, rebels captured the capital Tripoli and killed Gaddafi in October 2011.
The oil-rich nation quickly split into regions controlled by local and tribal groups, nationalist and mainstream Islamist factions, and militias including hardline jihadists such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group.
Attempts to link it with elections or agreements have failed.
Disputed parliamentary elections in 2014 led to two rival administrations: one in the east backed by powerful military commander Khalifa Hifter, and another in the west backed by militias based in Tripoli and recognized by the United Nations.
Hifter tried to take over the West in 2019, starting a 14-month war. Subsequently, efforts at a unity government and new elections fell apart, and once again Libya was divided between East-West governments.
Foreign powers, including Russia, Turkey and the UAE, supported various sides. European countries have sent money to the Tripoli government in an effort to stem the flow of migrants from Africa through Libya to Europe, but that money has largely helped fund militias. Efforts to end the conflict have stalled.
Sudan
In Sudan, the powerful military has thwarted efforts to transition to an elected civilian government.
Pro-democracy protests led the army to oust the powerful Omar al-Bashir in April 2019, and the generals took power for themselves. Despite the crackdown that left hundreds dead, protesters took to the streets to demand the handover of power to citizens.
Eventually, the generals agreed to a power-sharing deal with the pro-democracy coalition that led the movement.
A civilian prime minister leads a cabinet backed by a council headed by two powerful generals, notorious for atrocities in Darfur and including a 2019 crackdown on protesters. But before the army could hand over leadership of the council to the civilians, the generals staged a coup.
A few months later, in April 2023, the generals turned on each other, starting a war in which their armies fought across the country, including the capital, Khartoum. The war has been marked by brutality, caused widespread starvation, and driven millions from their homes, becoming the world’s worst displacement crisis.
Tunisia
The Arab Spring began in Tunisia more than 13 years ago. Until some time ago, the country was considered as a role model in the transition to democracy. It held free elections and drafted a constitution praised by Western rights groups.
But since being elected in 2019, President Qais Saeed has increased his power in what activists say is a retreat from democracy. Syed temporarily suspended parliament, redrafted the constitution, and launched a crackdown on his opponents, jailing hundreds for undermining state security — a claim autocrats have long used to stamp out dissent.
Egypt
The military has been a major power player in Egypt. It took direct control after 18 days of protests.
Parliament and presidential elections were held within 15 months. The Muslim Brotherhood, the most powerful opposition party under Mubarak, won both votes. Despite repeated assertions that it did not seek to dominate politics, it formed a majority in parliament and formed a Brotherhood-led government.
Over the next year, unrest grew as the opposition alleged that the Brotherhood was unfairly imposing its will on the country, including writing an Islamist-leaning constitution. Many, including the large Coptic Christian minority, feared Islamist rule.
Amid anti-Brotherhood protests, the military ousted President Mohamed Morsi in July 2013, a move supported by many secular parties and activists. This triggered a brutal crackdown against the Brotherhood, killing hundreds. Terrorist violence has increased with attacks on security forces and Christians.
Military chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi was elected president in 2014, and since then the military’s influence over the government and economy has grown. The government has gone further than Mubarak did in suppressing dissent, arresting Islamist and secular activists and silencing media criticism.