Arun K Singh, the former Indian ambassador to the US, spoke about Trump’s new regime, India-US relations, strategy with China and
Relevance of Quad. The session was moderated by Shubjit Roy, Editor of Diplomatic Affairs
While his re-election came as a surprise on one level, Trump’s base stayed with him as he picked up more support from different population segments. However, there is also an element of surprise – he was impeached twice by the House, accused of fraud, and accused of misconduct, particularly related to women. On the other side was Kamala Harris, who was seen as the historic candidate of an African-American woman, a South Asian woman and an Indian-American woman.
Despite this, Trump won not only the Electoral College but also the popular vote (which he lost in 2016). Factors going against Harris were that people were too focused on issues like inflation, unemployment and immigration. The Joe Biden administration took several steps to boost investment and job creation, but their impact was expected to be long-term rather than immediate. Hence, inflation was felt to be affecting the common man. If you look at Trump, he defined some issues for his campaign: inflation, unemployment, immigration, trade and isolation from the outside world.
How Trump’s approach might differ in a second term
This time he is coming with more experience. During his first term, many pointed out that his team did not manage to go into administration immediately. Now, within three weeks of the election, most of his cabinet appointments have been made, which is very unusual as it is usually done in January.
Second, he will command a greater grip on his administration. Last time, he suddenly had to bring in many people belonging to the conservative, mainstream Republican Party, who did not fully agree with him on his policies. These people prevented him from making decisions against the general grain of American politics. This time, it’s Trump who’s going to set the policy.
For example, some things have already been done abnormally. The incoming president sends a team he wants to hire for investigation by the FBI or CIA. That did not happen. He has tested all the private agencies he contracts with. This indicates that he is very suspicious of government agencies. Such actions would present him as unsettling to Washington and popular with his base.
Starring Elon Musk
Elon Musk used channels he controlled like X (formerly Twitter) to promote Trump and his policies. His $100-150 million investment in Trump’s campaign is perhaps the most profitable political investment ever because his own companies could come under federal regulation and scrutiny from the next administration. He will certainly try to use Trump’s reach for subsidies, federal support and deregulation that will benefit his companies. But I say that Donald Trump is Donald Trump. He uses people at different times, gives them prominence, but ultimately he wants to be seen as the only star in that sky.
Elon Musk and Vivek Ramasamy are both co-chairs of the Department of Government Efficiency. But when they prepare their report, they are not an executive body but a recommending body, so there is no guarantee that what they suggest will be implemented.
Musk has invested heavily in China, as have few others around Trump. These people don’t want high tariffs or a strong currency associated with China. At the same time, Trump has appointed Secretary of State such as Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Senator Marco Rubio, who have taken a scathing stance against China. Given past experience, Trump will play one faction against another and use different recommendations at different times depending on what suits him politically.
On Trump’s Policy Preferences
He certainly wants to end the active phase of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He and his team have repeatedly said that aid to Ukraine should be cut. When the Biden administration got a $60 billion package through Congress to support Ukraine, it took a lot of effort because Republicans in Congress opposed it.
From India’s point of view, it will definitely help because Russia is getting closer and closer to China after America and Europe isolated Russia. Of course, we have good relations with Russia and do not want to deepen our dependence or relationship with China. But the complication here would be that if European countries feel that their interests are being abandoned in the process, you could see a split between America and Europe. This will have ramifications for transatlantic relations because if Trump tries to take a hard line against China, he needs Europe.
Second, he will have to define the US approach to tariffs because his basic message is that the US has been exploited by other countries, especially China, in terms of trade and production. That approach will continue because the Chinese have made great strides in many critical technologies. Third, special attention will be paid to immigration.
On Trump’s approach to the Middle East
President Biden has been extremely supportive of Israel. He visited Israel within weeks of the October 7 Hamas attack. America has been supplying arms to Israel repeatedly. Based on what we saw in Trump 1.0 and subsequent comments, he is even more supportive of Israel. He has appointed a special envoy to the Middle East and an ambassador to Israel, and both are very supportive of Israel. Trump helped negotiate the Abraham Accords in 2020, but such activities will now end as Arab populations in these countries rage over the Israel-Gaza situation. The Trump administration wants something like a ceasefire but has no clarity on how that will go. There will be consequences for India, as the region is a major energy source, with nearly 9 million Indians living and working in the Gulf.
On Trump vs. China
In the field of critical minerals, the Chinese dominate the global market. If we look at artificial intelligence, China has filed the most patents, followed by the United States. Therefore, the Chinese will try to leverage their manufacturing in electronics, electronic components and other sectors to generate counter-pressure on the US.
Indo-US relations in Trump 2.0
India-US relations have been steadily strengthening since 2000. One is the strength of the bilateral relationship, with the US being our largest trading partner. US investment in India is the largest foreign investment in India at $60 billion. According to a survey conducted by the Indian Business Organization, Indian companies have invested more than 40 billion dollars in the US economy. One in seven patients in the US is seen by a doctor of Indian origin. Overall, there is deep integration of communities of Indian origin into American politics, administration and Congress.
A new phenomenon that has developed is called the Global Competency Center. These centers in India are serving global operations of multinational companies and not India operations. 1,700 such centers in India are carrying out state-of-the-art R&D and technology development work. About 60 percent of those centers are owned by American companies. Many leading US technology companies in semiconductor, digital sector, jet engines employ thousands of people in India. Americans understand that if they are to meet the challenge of China and if they are to maintain their lead, they need to partner with another country of 1.4 billion people, which has a large human capital. Today, 20 percent of the global talent in semiconductor design is located in India.
Certainly China, I would say, is an additional factor that further encourages this trend but not the main factor. Because I think a strong India in US estimation will be a natural deterrent to China’s unilateral and assertive actions in the neighborhood.
I think India should not be too concerned on this account, apart from the disruption it would cause to families if any deportations were to take place.
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