Iran-Israel Conflict: Countdown to Doom?

The Iran-Israel Conflict: A Dangerous Crossroads for the Region

Following its alleged involvement in Lebanon Pager bombings, which specifically targeted Hezbollah’s top ranks, Israel launched a massive air campaign against the group, which reportedly led to the killing of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in an operation dubbed “New Order”. This military strategy, characterized by attrition and limited ground operations, echoes those used during the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war. However, the dynamics of Israel’s multifaceted conflict have evolved to a point where a new chapter in the Middle East’s power struggle appears to be opening.

Israel’s Operation New Order

Israel has found itself embroiled in complex strategic calculations due to the Iran-Israel conflict and a series of targeted attacks against high-profile figures, including the heads of Hamas and Hezbollah, and an underground operation known as the “Northern Arrows” in Lebanon. The security risks in the Middle East have risen to alarming levels. However, these uncertain moves yield limited benefits for Israel.

First, the primary objective is to eliminate and destroy the axis of resistance, thereby reducing its operational capabilities. Second, the emphasis is on achieving strategic paralysis of Iran’s proxy regime, rendering it ineffective in the face of Israeli actions. Third, the goal is to weaken Iran’s influence

The Iran-Israel Conflict: A Dangerous Crossroads for the Region

Following its alleged involvement in Lebanon Pager blasts, which specifically targeted Hezbollah’s top ranks, Israel launched a massive air campaign against the group, leading to the killing of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Operation “New Order”. has been reported. This military strategy, characterized by attrition and limited ground operations, echoes those used during the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war. However, the dynamics of Israel’s multifaceted conflict have evolved to a point where a new chapter in the Middle East’s power struggle appears to be opening.

Israel’s Operation New Order

Israel has found itself embroiled in complex strategic calculations due to the Iran-Israel conflict and a series of targeted attacks against high-profile figures, including the heads of Hamas and Hezbollah, and an underground operation known as the “Northern Arrows” in Lebanon. The security risks in the Middle East have risen to alarming levels. However, these uncertain moves yield limited benefits for Israel.

First, the primary objective is to eliminate and destroy the axis of resistance, thereby reducing its operational capabilities. Second, the emphasis is on achieving strategic paralysis of Iran’s proxy regime, rendering it ineffective in the face of Israeli actions. Third, the goal is to weaken Iran’s influence in the Middle East, effectively recalibrating power dynamics in the region. Finally, this approach transcends conventional war, placing the region in a complex gray area characterized by a “no peace, no war” situation. Such a situation poses a daunting challenge, the consequences of which may reach far beyond Israel’s immediate borders.

Iran-Israel conflict: Iran miscalculated

Iran’s attack on October 7 last year was aimed at disrupting the region’s development plans and changing the balance of power in the Middle East. However, it now appears that the Iranian leadership may have misjudged the long-term impact of this strategy. The sudden escalation from Israel has dealt a strategic and strategic blow to Tehran, undermining its initial assessment that a protracted conflict characterized by balanced escalation would eventually weaken Israel. Although this view contains a kernel of truth—Israel’s economy is indeed weak—such effects may be temporary.

What began as a possible negotiation scenario on Iran’s terms appears to be leaning toward Israel gaining the upper hand in any subsequent negotiations. Iran’s efforts to ignite a new conflict in West Asia have achieved some strategic victories, disrupting the economic and strategic balance of the region. The move was intended to preserve Iranian influence and prevent the rapid development of a “West Asian Quad” ambition, which could pose a significant threat to Iran’s regional hegemony and potentially isolate it.

However, Iran failed to grasp the wider implications of the escalating hostilities. Israel’s aggressive strategic maneuvering has begun to change the dynamic, contradicting previous analyzes that suggest Israel will refrain from risky calculations. The ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, now seemingly protracted but balanced, deviates sharply from expected outcomes, indicating that Iran’s calculations do not match current realities.

The balance of power in the Middle East

As noted earlier, four critical changes could reshape the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape. While Israel stands to gain strategic benefits from these developments, they have the inherent potential to fundamentally change the balance of power in the region, potentially leaving it in a precarious state of “no peace, no war.” delivers

The War of Wars Against the Axis: The Rise of Israel and the Weakness of Iran

Israel’s intensified air and ground operations against various terrorist groups, including Yemen’s Houthis, signal a shift in strategic reality. Historically, Israel has opted for limited and sustained operations targeting terrorist proxies to destroy their strategic capabilities. However, the current approach has shifted to more extensive aerial campaigns aimed at the strategic elimination of these proxies. This massive attrition strategy not only weakens Iran, Israel’s perennial rival, but also puts it under greater pressure.

Iran, which believed that strategic patience and proxy wars would effectively encircle Israel, now finds itself at a crossroads when these strategies fail to produce the desired results. Iranian strategy appears increasingly unstable, raising the risk of engaging in asymmetric warfare. The situation highlights the changing power dynamics in the region, with Israel potentially strengthening its position while Iran faces the consequences of its miscalculation.

Iran-Israel conflict: “Grey” in the balance of power

The Middle East has experienced Cold War 2.0 and the complexities of Gray Zone conflict since the end of the Cold War and the beginning of the 2000s. However, the current gray zone dynamics are clearly more pronounced, suggesting that the region may oscillate between periods of “no peace, no war” and intense conflict. For now, the former scenario is likely to prevail, reshaping the balance of power in Israel’s favor at the strategic level. This change would not only undermine Iran’s credibility, but would also pave the way for an Israeli resurgence reminiscent of the post-1967 Arab-Israeli war.

Such a power realignment could encourage active US engagement in the Middle East, as a weak Iran and a strong Israel provide opportunities for diplomatic and political maneuvering that benefits both Western interests and regional stability. However, this strategic shift may also raise security concerns, hampering the economic and political prospects of Gulf states such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Conversely, if the situation evolves into a “no peace, no war” scenario, security concerns are likely to persist, albeit at more sustained levels. In this context, Iran may find opportunities to regroup and re-strengthen its proxy networks. The downside to the rise of Israel and the weakening of Iranian proxies is that history has shown us that such situations can lead to the resurgence of these factions. For example, the US failure to capture Osama bin Laden in the Battle of Tora Bora ultimately facilitated the resurgence of the Taliban. Similarly, Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon, known as Operation Peace for the Galilee, is often regarded as a strategic blunder that contributed to the rise of Hezbollah.

This historical precedent suggests that new and existing Iranian proxies may reorganize a permanent proxy war against Israel. Such dynamics may disrupt peace and stability, but they are unlikely to escalate into full-scale war. Iran appears to have absorbed important strategic lessons about the judicious use of proxy forces, leading to a more cautious approach. Thus, while the potential for conflict remains, a second full-scale war seems unlikely, leaving the region in a state of fragmented peace.

Iran’s Alternatives and Future

Having exhausted its strategic patience, Iran has escalated tensions by launching ballistic missile strikes against Israel, actions that are almost certain to provoke a strong retaliatory response. In this critical situation, Iran has two primary options.

First, it could engage in a limited war against Israel. Although this approach carries the risk of significant damage to an asymmetrically disadvantaged Iran, it could potentially reinvigorate its proxy networks, allowing Tehran to reassert its influence in the region.

Alternatively, Iran could opt for back channels or quiet diplomacy to begin serious negotiations with Israel to avert the immediate threat of direct or limited war. This strategy is becoming increasingly attractive as Israel faces pressing questions about the hostages, making negotiations a more favorable opportunity for de-escalation.

However, the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict and the “peace no war” and “no peace, no war” dynamics in the region complicate the prospects for peace and diplomacy. In such a charged environment, achieving sustainable agreements will prove challenging, as both sides must endure the uncertainties and strategic dilemmas that define the current situation.