India’s chances of reaching the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2025 final will take another turn if the third Border-Gavaskar Test against Australia ends in a draw or loss in Brisbane on Wednesday.
With rain on Day 5 seemingly out of the equation at the Gabba, India’s WTC points percentage (PCT) is expected to take a hit, regardless of a draw or loss. India’s PCT will fall from 57.29 to 55.88 in a draw and further fall to 53.92 in a loss. If they fail to win in the ongoing match, India will remain third in the WTC standings behind South Africa and Australia.
The Adelaide Test win marked Australia’s ninth of the running cycle, reducing their PCT from 57.69 to 60.71, bettered only by South Africa (63.33) whose home two The test is pending. Draw or lose in Brisbane, the challenge will be tough for both Australia and India, but even more so for Rohit Sharma’s men.
How much can India lose from here?
In order to reach the finals of WTC 2025, India cannot afford another loss in their remaining two matches. Moreover, India can only draw a maximum of one in the remaining matches. If the Gabba Test ends in a draw, Rohit and Co can amass 138 points at 60.52 pct with two wins in Melbourne and Sydney, which Australia cannot improve on. For that, India will have to win 3-1 against the defending WC champions.
India’s WTC final scenarios
- If India beat Australia 3-2, they will finish with 134 points and a PCT of 58.77. With only two Tests remaining in Sri Lanka, Australia could do well with 126 points and 55.26 pct. With this, South Africa can increase their PCT to 69.44 with two wins in their remaining home matches against Pakistan.
- If India beat Australia 3-1, they will finish with 138 points and a PCT of 60.52. If Australia wins the remaining matches in Sri Lanka, effectively exiting the race, then will be able to finish with only 57 pct.
- If India draw Australia 2-2, they will finish with 126 points and a PCT of 57.01. In such a situation, Australia could lead to 130 points by the end of the series and knock India out of the race for the WTC finals.
IND vs AUS 3rd Test Day 5 WTC Scores Table
|
place |
the team |
fits |
Points competed |
points |
PCT |
|||
| P | W | L | D | |||||
| 1 | South Africa | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 120 | 76 | 60.71 |
| 1 | Australia | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 168 | 102 | 60.71 |
| 3 | India | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 192 | 110 | 57.29 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 168 | 81 | 48.21 |
| 5 | Sri Lanka | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 132 | 60 | 45.45 |
| 6 | England | 22 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 264 | 114 | 43.18 |
| 7 | Pakistan | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 120 | 40 | 33.33 |
| 8 | Bangladesh (E) | 12 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 144 | 45 | 31.25 |
| 9 | West Indies (E) | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 132 | 32 | 24.24 |
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