Here’s how Israel could strike Iran

As demonstrated by this week’s Iranian strikes, the conflict has become a direct confrontation between Israel and its Western allies on the one hand, and Iran and its proxies, supported by Russia and China, on the other.

Washington has played a key role in supplying Israel with military aid and diplomatic cover, while Moscow has pledged to send Iran fighter jets and air defense technology. It is also buying Iranian weapons for its own war in Ukraine, providing Tehran with much-needed cash.

Moreover, Israel is now engaged on many fronts.

First, its war on Gaza continues, where 40,000 Palestinians have been killed. Hamas has been reduced to a less active guerrilla organization but still retains some control over the displaced Palestinian population.

In the West Bank, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are conducting military operations to counter an increase in terrorist attacks fueled by Iranian weapons and funds directed at local rebels.

Meanwhile, Iran’s other proxy groups, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, and Yemen’s Houthi rebels are launching missile and drone strikes against Israel. Both Israel and the US have retaliated against Houthi rebels in Yemen.

However, the most important battle is in Lebanon. On October 8, 2023, one day after a Hamas offensive through southern Israel, which resulted in 1,200 deaths in Gaza and the kidnapping of over 200 Israelis in Gaza, Hezbollah began firing unprovoked rockets and other weapons into Israel in solidarity with Hamas. It has forced more than 60,000 Israelis near the border to flee their homes.

Two weeks ago, Israel took a decisive step. Netanyahu reportedly ordered the detonation of thousands of booby-trap pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah, fearing the operation would be exposed.

The IDF launched a massive air campaign aimed at reducing Hezbollah’s estimated arsenal of 150,000 missiles, rockets and drones.

It then launched a ground offensive in Lebanon, targeting positions fortified by Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force. The goal is to prevent Hezbollah from invading northern Israel and repeating the October 7 Hamas atrocities there.

Up to one million Lebanese have been forced to flee their homes due to the Israeli crackdown.

Israel’s option to strike back

And now, Iran has directly engaged in combat with a ballistic missile launch into Israel this week, reportedly targeting military bases. Most of the missiles were intercepted by Israel’s advanced anti-missile defense system, supported by the US, Jordan and other nations. Some landed inside Israel, with shrapnel killing a Palestinian in the West Bank.

This is the second direct attack by Iran on Israel in recent months. The first resulted in limited Israeli retaliation against Iranian air defense systems allegedly protecting a nuclear facility in Isfahan.

The full extent and impact of Israel’s retaliation this time is unknown at the time of writing.

A scenario that deeply worries Tehran could be Israel targeting its critical infrastructure in coordination with the US. This may include its communications and transportation networks, financial institutions, and oil industries (especially facilities that are part of the funding mechanism of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corporation). This could create chaos within Iran, threatening the existence of the regime.

While forcing regime change in Tehran will be extremely difficult, the Iranian leadership is taking no chances. It is said to have taken Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to safety to prevent any assassination attempts.

Iran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program has become the crown jewel of the Iranian regime, which the U.S. and its allies believe serves as a cover for its pursuit of a nuclear bomb.

Iranian leaders may now fear that Israel and the US could seize the opportunity to seriously damage its nuclear infrastructure, something some conservative voices in both countries have long urged. Biden, however, is instead urging a “proportionate” response.

Destroying Iran’s air defense system is considered an option that signals the regime will be “blindsided” by any future attack on Israel. Other possibilities are also on the table.

Iran-Israel conflict: A narrow window for Israel

In an effort to ease tensions, Iranian officials hastily announced their desire to end hostilities after the missile attack.

However, the conflict has come full circle. Hamas believed that Israel would fall after the October 7, 2023 attack. However, instead, Israel responded with a devastating war on Gaza, destroying many of Hamas’ capabilities but also causing widespread casualties and destruction.

Similarly, the decisions by Hezbollah and Iran to attack Israel proved to be serious miscalculations, underestimating Israel’s determination to retaliate with overwhelming influence.

The ball is now in Israel’s court. Although any retaliation must take into account the fact that the IDF is already stretched thin on several fronts, Iran’s “axis of resistance” has also never looked more vulnerable.

Israel has a narrow window to strike a major blow against it – and Netanyahu is unlikely to let this moment pass.

Ran Porat, Associate Researcher, Australian Center for Jewish Civilization, Monash University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.