Dramatic The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria This has been repeated in faraway China, which is cultivating Damascus as an ally in the volatile Middle East.
The Communist Party and foreign policy experts who support it have come under fire for the failed gamble on social media.
China had invested heavily in this sector, which has now turned into a huge loss. Also, Beijing’s heavy reliance on Iran and Russia — both countries accused of abandoning the Assad regime — to gain a foothold in the Middle East is now called “poor” diplomacy.
According to a report by the Cyprus-based consulting firm Center for Operational Research and Analysis (COAR), China’s financial aid to Damascus increased 100-fold from $500,000 to $54 million after the Syrian government’s victory over rebel forces in Aleppo in 2016. a year In addition, Beijing has also made long-term investments in Syrian oil and gas, totaling about $3 billion.
Three major concerns
Prominent foreign affairs columnists in Chinese mainstream media have expressed concern among large numbers of netizens over a) China’s growing interest in the Middle East as an economic and development partner; b) China should enter the power-play of the big countries in the region; and c) What should China do to prevent the United States from blocking Beijing’s “Westward Plan”?
This echoes what happened after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war – both diplomatically and geopolitically, China’s stakes were high, but popular comments on Chinese social media conflicted with the official party line. This time, netizens are asking if Iran and Russia have failed to hold Syria together, so is it worth Beijing (alone) contesting the US hegemony in the Middle East?
Social media posts mocked China’s recent spate of diplomatic achievements in the region, namely the Beijing-brokered ceasefire between key Palestinian rivals Fatah and Hamas earlier this year, and a surprise Saudi Arabia-Iran “diplomatic détente” in March 2023. China gave credit to itself.
It is really surprising that Chinese netizens have almost echoed the views of foreign analysts in criticizing the above two “diplomatic achievements”. A Reuters report recently pointed out that despite repeated diplomatic efforts, a unity government has not been formed in Palestine.
Xi’s bet on Assad
Pro-Beijing think tank analysts and scholars are now being criticized for exaggerating Assad’s “historic” visit to Hangzhou in September last year.
On the personal initiative of President Xi Jinping, Assad was invited to the opening ceremony of the Asian Games. It comes six months after the Saudi Arabia-Iran “historic” diplomatic normalization.
Heng He, a Chinese current affairs commentator, said, “Beijing’s support for Assad was largely dependent on its alignment with Iran and Russia, something Beijing may now be reassessing.”
Some say Xi’s welcoming of Assad in Hangzhou and the signing of a “strategic partnership” agreement between the two countries is how “imperialist” Beijing rewards “loyal” Damascus for formally joining Xi’s signature initiative, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Earlier in 2022, Beijing provided diplomatic shield to Bashar al-Assad. Many resolutions have been blocked in the UNSC in recent years. Zhang Jun, the Chinese ambassador to the United Nations, actively criticized the US and European Union sanctions against Syria.
Within days of Assad’s fall, netizens in China began questioning the PRC regime and CPC leadership for “protecting” Syria’s “fake socialist” regime.
Ji Feng, a Chinese blogger on China’s largest and most popular social media, WeChat, said, “The Assad issue is definitely an outlet for many people (in China).”
Netizens also targeted Li Shaoxian, dean of the China-Arab State Research Institute at Ningxia University, who said in a Dec. 4 interview with Phoenix TV that Assad’s ouster was highly unlikely.
Lessons from China after the fall of Assad
Some Chinese have started to say that the resources that China has wasted in Syria and the Middle East should be better used in China’s main interests, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
On another level, Chinese netizens have “dared” to mock China’s international relations experts, saying they are “obstructed to repeat the official line of the ruling Chinese Communist Party on everything instead of taking a cool analytical view of international events.”
China’s IR scholars added their own back when Syria was reinstated to the Arab League last year after being suspended from the body 12 years ago. Yin Gang, a researcher at the prestigious China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) in Beijing, then said: “China will undoubtedly play a very important role as Syria seeks a new balanced and comprehensive diplomacy in this new historical era.”
Finally, while praising Assad’s six-day visit to Beijing last year – his first in nearly two decades – Chinese strategic affairs experts said “his visit will take bilateral relations to a new high and bring practical cooperation projects to a new level.” “String is possible,” he said. Initiatives will be taken.”
After Assad’s fall, scholars in China are now calling for “deep thinking” and “deep lessons.” Realizing the limitations of China’s diplomacy in both Syria and the region, some scholars say the biggest lesson for China’s policymakers is to reassess Beijing’s overdependence on Iran and Russia.
Dr Hemant Adlakha teaches Chinese at JNU, and is Vice-President and Honorary Fellow at the Institute of Chinese Studies, Delhi.
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