In 2024, politics took a surprising turn in India, its immediate neighbors and many countries around the world.
These developments were unprecedented in some places, rapid or unexpected in others – and in many cases had the potential to bring about dynamic changes in discourses and narratives.
In India and elsewhere, relations between political parties and actors became more strained, divisions between ruling and opposition parties deepened, and their mutual animosity increased.
The scale of the landslide victory of Donald Trump in the United States and Keir Starr in the United Kingdom was stunning, and the speed with which long-standing regimes like Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh fell was shocking. the world
Elsewhere in India’s neighbourhood, Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s victory in Sri Lanka was not expected by many. And Pakistan sank deeper into political chaos.
In Europe, France and Germany saw political turmoil, with governments losing the confidence of parliament, signaling uncertainty and potential crisis in the new year.
In India, much was on the cards for the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third term. The Lok Sabha elections seemed like a formality to many. The BJP was excited after the opening of the Ram temple in Ayodhya. The stock market was doing well. It seemed like a deal.
But the result shocked the BJP, and forced Modi to form a government with ideologically diverse regional parties for the first time in his political career. The opposition was jubilant, and many began to believe that the BJP was beginning to lose its grip on power.
And then came another surprise. The BJP swept the assembly elections in Haryana and Maharashtra in spectacular fashion, regaining its electoral mojo and putting the opposition, especially the Congress, back under pressure. The Congress, inexplicably buoyed by its third straight defeat in the Lok Sabha elections, is now facing mounting challenges from allies in India.
The year also saw the return of democratic electoral process in Jammu and Kashmir. Although candidates were in the fray with the support of Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party and Jamaat-e-Islami, the people kept their faith in the mainstream parties.
In Odisha, Naveen Patnaik and the BJD walked out after a record 24 years in power, a minor political earthquake in itself.
2024 was an election year. 2025 provides a window to look beyond elections. This will likely be a year that will be at the center of governance. There are big challenges on the economic front as growth slowed more than expected in the second quarter.
Here are five overarching issues, trends, and developments that could shape the political debate in India in 2025 and beyond.
1. Deep political bitterness
One message from the 2024 Lok Sabha elections was the people’s preference for continuity with moderation. But both BJP and Congress seem to have chosen to misread the mandate. Their political positions have hardened, and they have taken their bitter rivalries into everyday politics, parliament and beyond. As the year drew to a close, relations between the ruling party and the opposition became strained during the winter session of Parliament.
By their words and actions, both sides have left little room for the democratic preconditions of dialogue or engagement – inside or outside Parliament. For the first time in the history of the Republic of India, the opposition parties tried unsuccessfully to remove the Vice President from office. Although the target was Jagdeep Dhankhar, the move was clearly aimed at the government.
The ugly spat in Parliament – and the filing of an FIR against opposition leader Rahul Gandhi – will only deepen the animosity. In order to regain some semblance of normality, both sides will have to find some middle ground for engagement and dialogue, even as they pursue their own political and ideological goals.
2. Temple-Mosque, cont
The Supreme Court has called for an immediate halt to a flurry of civil cases challenging the ownership and name of Muslim places of worship allegedly built on the ruins of existing Hindu temples. And RSS Sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagwat has said that after the construction of Ram Temple in Ayodhya, it is not acceptable to raise a similar issue in a new place.
But politics over temples and mosques is unlikely to stop in 2025. At least 18 petitions regarding 10 mosques/masjids are currently pending before the court. The bulk of the new cases claiming Hindu rights to Muslim sites have been filed in Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP suffered a heavy defeat at the hands of the SP and the Congress in the Lok Sabha elections. Assembly elections are more than two years away, but the political scene in Uttar Pradesh is already heating up.
3. Two elections, three brands
The major assembly elections of 2025 will be a test for three major political brands – Nitish Kumar, Arvind Kejriwal, and Narendra Modi.
For more than two decades, Nitish has turned political and electoral defeats into opportunities, always managing to float in the end. He has been repeatedly accused of choosing political interest over ideology.
Assembly elections in Bihar, scheduled for October-November 2025, will be a big test for Brand Nitish, whose political obituary has been written more than once. This election will also test the political ability of Tejashwi Yadav, who has been waiting for a long time to become the Chief Minister of Bihar.
Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party, which has been in power in Delhi since 2013, is under pressure like never before. Will Kejriwal, who resigned from the post of Chief Minister after being jailed on charges of corruption and released on bail, be able to lead the Aam Aadmi Party for a third consecutive term?
More than a decade ago, AAP became India’s most successful political startup – today, both Kejriwal’s image and his brand of politics are under threat.
The Prime Minister’s brand value will also be tested in both Bihar and Delhi. Despite winning all seven Lok Sabha seats thrice since 2014, the BJP has been in the political wilderness in Delhi for more than two-and-a-half decades.
4. Conflicting Laws
At least two controversial and polarizing bills will be introduced by Parliament in 2025 – the Constitution Amendment Bill to synchronize Lok Sabha and Assembly elections, and the Bill to regulate waqf properties.
The One Nation, One Election Bill — now referred to a joint committee of Parliament — will test the BJP’s ability to cross the aisle. A special majority of more than 50 percent of the total number of members of the Parliament and two-thirds of the members present and voting are required to pass the Constitution Amendment Bill. BJP does not have such a majority in both houses.
Over the past 10 years, the BJP has managed to push through controversial laws, including a bill to bifurcate Jammu and Kashmir and downgrade the (former) state into two Union Territories. The dynamics are different now. Almost all opposition parties have united against the proposal of one nation, one election. And the Waqf Bill will test the BJP’s ability to negotiate with allies like the TDP and JD(U), which have substantial Muslim support bases.
5. Race, Census, UCC
In a year when the central government plans to start the delayed decennial census exercise, the rhetoric about caste will only get louder. The big question is whether the government will include caste in the census – a political minefield in which the BJP has so far treaded.
The Congress believes that the push for caste and social justice can counter the Hindutva pressure of the BJP. And this is why BJP is giving political slogans like “Batenge to Katenge” and “Ek hain se sakhar hain”. The Prime Minister has identified the poor, youth, women and farmers as ‘big caste’. A speech in Parliament on BR Ambedkar’s legacy indicates that the gloves are well and truly off.
Addressing on the occasion of Independence Day, the Prime Minister emphasized that instead of the existing ‘Communal Civil Code’, he should move towards a ‘Secular Civil Code’ and returned to the issue while responding to the debate on the completion of 75 years of the Constitution. Lok Sabha.
Home Minister Amit Shah has announced that BJP governments will introduce a Common Civil Code in all states like Uttarakhand. Uttarakhand UCC will come into force in January 2025. The BJP has chief ministers in 14 states, including states in the Northeast. Efforts to push the UCC envelope could open new fissures in politics.
Manoj CG is the political bureau chief of Indian Express
Next: the economy
Why should you buy our membership?
You want to be the smartest in the room.
You want access to our award-winning journalism.
You don’t want to be confused and misinformed.
Choose your subscription package