Domestic migration estimated to have decreased by 12% since 2011: EAC-PM

A report by the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Panel EAC-PM estimated that the number of domestic migrants declined by about 12 percent to 40.20 million between 2011 and 2023, indicating increased economic opportunities across the country.

According to a working paper of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (EAC-PM), the number of domestic migrants in 2023 was 40,20,90,396, which was 11.78% less than the figure registered as per the 2011 census.

‘400 Million Dreams! Examining the volume and direction of domestic migration in India using novel high-frequency data, according to Census 2011, the total number of migrants was 45,57,87,621.

“Overall domestic migration in India is slow. We estimate the total number of migrants in the country to be 40,20,90,396 by 2023. This is about 11.78% less than the number of migrants counted as per Census 2011. (45,57,87,621),” it said. said

As a result, according to the 2011 census, the migration rate of 37.64 percent of the total population is estimated to have dropped to 28.88 percent.

“We hypothesize that the availability of improved services such as education, health, infrastructure and connectivity, as well as improved economic opportunities at or near key sources of migration, are indicators of overall economic growth,” the paper wrote. By former EAC-PM President Vivek Debroy.

The paper used three high-frequency and granular data sets – Indian Railways Unreserved Ticketing System (UTS) passenger volume data; Roaming data of mobile telephone subscribers from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), and district-level banking data to understand the potential impact of migration on origin locations.

Looking at the spatial dimensions of travel, the paper said, the top districts of origin clustered around similar major urban agglomerations. Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Bangalore, Kolkata etc.

This is not only consistent with the gravity model of migration but also possibly a temporal confirmation of the former, meaning that short-distance migration constitutes the largest share of migrants and that distance has a negative impact on labor flows, it added.

The report also noted that the composition of the top five states attracting the maximum number of migrants (including intra-state migrants) has changed.

“West Bengal and Rajasthan are the new entrants while Andhra Pradesh and Bihar are now a notch down,” it said.

Pointing out that the states of West Bengal, Rajasthan and Karnataka were the states that showed the maximum increase in the percentage share of inbound passengers, the report said Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh were the states where the percentage share of total migrants declined.

“Mumbai, Bengaluru Urban, Howrah, Central Delhi, Hyderabad districts are the districts attracting the most migrant arrivals, while Valsad, Chittoor, West Bardhaman, Agra, Guntur, Villupuram and Saharsa are the top origin districts,” it said.

According to the letter, at the state level, Uttar Pradesh-Delhi; Gujarat-Maharashtra; Telangana-Andhra Pradesh, and Bihar-Delhi emerge as the primary dyads of the movement.

“At the district level, Murshidabad-Kolkata; West Bardhaman-Howrah; Valsad-Mumbai; Chittoor-Bengaluru Urban, and Surat-Mumbai are the most popular routes for inter-district migration,” the paper said, adding that it has implications for urbanites. For planning as well as planning of transport network.

Using TRAI’s mobile phone roaming data, the report found that April-June is the peak month for traffic while November-December witnesses a secondary peak.

A secondary high during winter is probably an indication of travel around festival/wedding season. January, on the other hand, appears to be the least traveled month, it said.

According to Census 2011, just five states – Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal – together account for about 48% of the total outbound migrants, including in-state migrants.

Similarly, just five states – Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu – account for about 48% of all incoming migrants. It also includes migrants within the state.

Between 1991 and 2001, the compound annual growth rate of the number of immigrants was 2.7 percent. It increased to 3.7% during the period 2001 to 2011.

Interestingly, during 1991 to 2001, India’s workforce increased from 3.17 crore to 4.02 crore (annual average growth of 2.6%), while from 2001 to 2011, the workforce increased from 4.02 crore to 4.82 crore (annual average growth). . 1.99%).

Leave a Comment