Syria is ready for occupation. The victorious Hayat Tahrir al-Sham activists (who are still officially designated as terrorists) suspended the constitution and parliament. Kurdish rebels have created their own state in the east. Turkey controls a large area in the northern part of the country. Israel, whose bombing has decimated Syria’s defenses, controls a so-called buffer zone and the Golan Heights, which it captured in 1967. A U.S. base stretches across the Iraqi border.
Meanwhile, as US President Joe Biden described the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as a “historic occasion”, Richard M. Nixon recalled that 33 years ago, when the Soviet Union collapsed, it was time for America to “reset its geopolitical compass.” “We have a historic opportunity to change the world,” he said, fearing retirement.
What West Asia needs is not gleeful triumphalism but peace and reconciliation that would allow all factions in Syria, including foreign-controlled enclaves, to unite in a moderate Muslim nation led by Saddam Hussein, like Iraq.
Although more dominoes are expected to fall, impartial observers around the world must breathe a sigh of relief that the HTS chief, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, who has reverted to his pre-revolutionary name Ahmed al-Shara, has not insisted on one. Bloody regime change as in Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan. There may be less free space in Damascus than in Dhaka.
A British military commentator and West Asian war veteran who wrote that Mr. Assad’s fate was unknown, “speculating that his plane was the victim of a Russian-made missile system operated by his enemies” was apparently indulging in wishful thinking. To Western eyes, that may be the most desirable outcome. But given their extensive support system, Mr. Assad’s death alone won’t solve anything.
The Assad family did not remain in power for half a century, without strengthening ties to early Shiite networks with the syncretic Alawite sect, which are especially influential in the eastern Mediterranean and around Aleppo, Syria’s second most important city. Since taking power in the 1970s, the dynasty has exploited Alawite loyalty to legitimize its dynastic rule. Those tribal bonds are not easily suppressed. However, the new interim prime minister, Mohammed al-Bashir, appointed by the HTS chief, has promised to protect the rights of minorities and bring security to the country, reports the tomb of Hafez al-Assad, father of the exiled president, who has been in power since 1971. Until his death in 2000, the burning of Latakia revived fears that an Islamist theocracy would sooner or later be expected. to occupy later.
Christians, who make up five percent of the 25 million Syrians, are reportedly especially nervous. Syria’s Iran-run auxiliary military forces — the Pakistani Liwa Zainabiun and the Afghan Hazara Shia Fatemeyun — fear elimination. Iranian-sponsored populist militias in nearby Iraq are also at risk.
One reason for Western jubilation is that Mr. Assad’s ouster is seen as a dream come true for Russian President Vladimir Putin to conquer Ukraine and revive the Russian empire. Another thing is that it is a defeat for the Ayatollahs of Iran who are anathema to the United States, and who must be angry at the so-called Abraham or Abrahamic agreement that Donald Trump rushed to win support in his last presidential embrace of death. Israel in crisis.
Petrol is the third important factor. Oil reserves of 2,500 million barrels make Syria the 31st most important energy power with 0.2 percent of global stocks. Human rights in Syria, the alleged repression of the Assad regime, the horror stories of the Sednaya detention center and the disappearance of thousands of prisoners, rank fourth for pragmatic Americans who find no moral obligation to support Israel if necessary.
Hence the Abraham Accords, a series of treaties to normalize Israel’s relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, which the Trump administration facilitated between August and December 2020. The name is derived from Abraham of the Old Testament – considered the patriarch. Judaism, Christianity and Islam – as a PR ploy to emphasize the similarities between the warring parties. Within five months, four Arab nations joined Egypt and Jordan in making peace with Israel, but there was no sign that the millions of Palestinians uprooted from Zionist rule would receive an independent homeland under the Oslo Accords. Israel and Palestine Liberation Organization.
Much will depend on how HTS conducts itself in power and how Trump, who is set to take office in just a few weeks, responds to an organization that the US brands as a terrorist. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Syria’s northern neighbor, Turkey, is another unthinkable. Will he make peace with the Kurds, who were promised a sovereign homeland in the 1920 Treaty of Sèvres but are still a persecuted minority spread across multiple borders? Punishing Russia by denying it access to warm-water ports may advance US strategic goals but not particularly help the situation in West Asia.
Many other dangers lurk ahead. The Ukraine crisis deserves attention. And so is Sudan. A victorious incoming Trump administration could seek to implement its MAGA agenda by overthrowing the ayatollahs in Tehran. How far will it go in trying to crush the Houthi rebels in Yemen? The ambitions of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham cannot be ignored. Flanked by theocratic Pakistan and increasingly enigmatic Bangladesh, India is said to be as worried as the US about the threat of the re-emergence of ISIS in Syria.
It would be unrealistic to expect much from Mr. Biden’s final throw of the 64-page document, which maps out more than 100 executive branch actions that the Council on American Islamic Relations has already dubbed “too little, too late.” Mr. Biden’s acknowledgment that “Muslims and Arabs deserve to live with dignity and enjoy every right to the fullest extent with all their fellow Americans,” and that “policies that discriminate against entire communities are wrong and fail to keep us safe.” Still avoid coming to grips with the heart of the matter.
That is Palestine. Solving the refugee problem will not automatically solve the challenge of Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism, but the Muslim dilemma will live and bleed unless it solves the problem of homelessness, which is entirely caused by Israel’s ethnic aggression.