European Union leaders insisted on Thursday that no decision could be made on the future of war-torn Ukraine without its consent – or the back of its partners in Europe, a month before US President-elect Donald Trump takes office.
The situation in Ukraine is uncertain, more than 1,000 days into the war. Russia continues to make gains on the battlefield, pushing the front line steadily westward despite heavy casualties. Ukraine’s energy grid is broken and military recruits are hard to find.
In a show of solidarity at a summit in Brussels with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, many EU leaders reiterated the distinction of having a common mantra – nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine, nothing about security in Europe without Europeans.
“Only Ukraine as an invaded country can legitimately define what peace means – and if and when the conditions for credible talks are met,” summit organizer Antonio Costa said at the end of a day-long meeting of the 27-nation bloc.
“So now is not the time to speculate about different scenarios. Now is the time to strengthen Ukraine for all scenarios,” said European Council President Costa.
On January 20, Trump returned to the White House, promising to quickly end the war in Ukraine and talking about his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Many Europeans are concerned that this could result in a bad deal for Ukraine.
Another big concern is that Putin will use any inter-rule to re-arm and cause conflict.
Rumors are swirling in Europe about possible peace talks as early as 2025, and a European peacekeeping force could be needed to enforce any deal, but EU leaders are trying to keep a lid on what they are prepared to do. Hand over to Russia.
The priority now, they say, is to strengthen Ukraine’s hand, should Zelensky decide it’s time to negotiate.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said “it is important to ensure long-term assistance to Ukraine – it must be clear that we are ready to enable assistance as long as necessary”. Air defense, artillery and ammunition are high on the list, he told reporters.
When asked about Trump, Scholz said that his impression “better cooperation between Europe and America is possible” when talking to the president-elect. He said that “the principle is always: there is no decision on the heads of the Ukrainians, and that means on the European states.”
The Prime Minister of Luxembourg, Luc Fredon, gave a similar message.
“We need to stand with Ukraine, and every step … needs to be taken with Ukraine and in the presence of the European Union. Ukraine’s future is decided in Europe, not elsewhere,” he said.
Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof stressed that only Ukraine could set the terms for the talks, “and it’s not for us to talk about it. At the moment, Ukraine has not yet indicated that they are ready to do so.”
“Only the US and Europe together can stop Putin and save Ukraine,” Zelensky told Kiev, adding that the EU and the US need to unite next year. He said the only effective security guarantee remains NATO membership.
In his speech to the leaders posted on his website, Zelensky thanked France “for the initiative of the military contingent in Ukraine as part of this guarantee and for (calling) other partners to join this effort, which will help bring the war to an end”. It’s hard to predict what Trump might do, and history can be a reliable guide.
Under his previous presidency, in 2020, the United States signed an agreement to withdraw troops from Afghanistan directly, much to the dismay of the Afghan government and president, with the strongest player — the Taliban insurgents.
The chaotic exit in 2021, finally ordered by President Joe Biden, outraged Washington and its allies in NATO as Afghan security forces they had trained for years and invested billions in collapsed and the Taliban rose to power.
In Ukraine, the 27-nation EU has provided at least as much aid — more than 180 billion euros (USD 187 billion) since Russia launched its full-scale invasion nearly three years ago — as the United States.
But while the world’s largest trading bloc may keep Ukraine’s battered economy afloat, it is almost certain that the EU will be able to provide the country’s armed forces with the military support they need to prevail.
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