From the return of Donald Trump as US president to the almost unexpected collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime along with the ongoing Gaza war in Syria, the year 2024 has been a defining chapter in the ever-evolving landscape of international relations.
The fall of the Assad regime in Syria on 8 November 2024 raised concerns over the restoration of peace in the region, especially after armed Islamist groups took over the country. Its potential consequences prompted regional powers such as Israel, Lebanon, Iran, Turkey, and international actors including Russia and the US to scramble for a response.
Clearly, wars, conflicts and geopolitical rivalries have overshadowed other important issues such as climate change, human rights and gender equality. This article provides a brief summary of the most important developments in international affairs in 2024, highlighting events and trends that have shaped the global order and set the stage for the coming years.
Trump returned to the White House
following A year-long election processAmericans went to vote for the next president “on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November” (as is tradition). Trump’s eventual victory as the 47th President of the United States became a common stumbling block in the national and international media.
Whether the policies of the incoming US President, who will be inaugurated on January 20, 2025, are in line with India’s aspirations on the world stage, has the Indian diplomatic circle particularly in view of Trump’s stance on immigration, trade, tariffs and his policy towards them. Indo-Pacific.
Earlier this month, Trump has threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs on BRICS nations“If it tries to replace the US dollar in international trade. So far, Trump’s initial tariff plans exclude India and plan to impose substantial tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. This move could lead to tensions between the two powerful economies – the US and China – and could potentially disrupt global trade.
It also echoes the previous Trump administration’s (2017-2021) presentation of Beijing as a “strategic threat” in its national security strategy – where US and Indian interests intersect – challenging China. In that context, the approach of the incoming Trump administration will be towards the Indo-Pacific New focus on India’s concerns about China’s assertiveness in the region.
The need for deeper US-India cooperation in this area, both on the strategic and economic fronts, cannot be denied. In fact, the strategic convergence between India and the US in this region was the primary contributing driver. Shift from Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific. The Trump administration adopted a national security strategy for the Indo-Pacific region in 2017 and renamed the US Pacific Command in 2018, formalizing and institutionalizing the concept of the Indo-Pacific.
The Indo-Pacific: An Area of ​​Strategic Concern
The policy shift was seen as an important step to address China’s aggression, increasing threats to critical sea lanes of communication and non-traditional security challenges such as climate change, piracy, illegal fishing, natural disasters and cyber security threats. It was important to include major global actors, especially India – an increasingly dominant power – in the US policy framework.
Notably, under the previous Trump administration, foreign ministers from the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) countries – Australia, India, Japan and the US – held talks for the first time, paving the way for the group to emerge as an important platform. Governance in key regions of the Indo-Pacific.
President Joe Biden built momentum by elevating the Quad to the level of leaders. During the meeting in September 2024, Biden hosted the quad leaders in his hometown of Wilmington, Delaware. The Biden administration released an Indo-Pacific strategy in February 2022, emphasizing a free and open Indo-Pacific, sovereign decision-making by countries, adherence to international law, and the rule of law of shared domains such as seas and skies – which is in sync with India has a position in this area.
Actually, through it “Pre-action” policyIndia emerges as a natural partner in this vision, aiming to enhance cooperation with Southeast Asia, East Asia and the Pacific region while mitigating China’s growing influence. All eyes are now on the expected revisions to US Indo-Pacific policy under the incoming Trump administration, while Washington’s economic rivalry with China – evident in the proposed tariff plans – will take center stage, shaping the broader security and strategic outlook in the region.
A World at War: The Ukraine-Russia and Hamas-Israel Wars
Amidst all this, major conflicts around the world, including the Ukraine-Russia and Hamas-Israel wars, have become sticking points for global powers. As the Ukraine-Russia war approaches its third year in 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made historic visits to Russia in July and Ukraine in August this year, to hold talks with President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelensky, respectively.
clarified that India is not “neutral” but “for peace” He asked both parties to come to the table without wasting time in this bilateral conflict. However, Russia’s protracted war with a poor economy prompted Trump to call Moscow a “weak state,” unable to come to the rescue of its longtime ally in West Asia — Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. However, the prolonged war has left its economy in a bad state
More importantly, the fall of the 24-year-old Assad regime in Syria was seen as a strategic blow to Iran, particularly to its axis of resistance—a coalition of armed organizations and government actors in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Palestinian groups.
The Axis has become a major force for Iran in regional influence and opposition to the US and Israel. Considering the volatile situation in the region, It will not be possible to predict the outcome of Assad’s fall. However, Turkey, Iran, and Gulf Cooperation Council nations, along with Israel, are likely to recalibrate their strategies for regional aspirations.
Meanwhile, talks on a cease-fire in Gaza remain uncertain, with Israel and Hamas accusing each other of impeding progress. The war began after Israel retaliated against Hamas’s October 2023 attack on southern Israel and soon escalated to include A direct attack between Israel and Iran. This situation is not good for a country like India, which has a big stake in the stability of this region.
Gaza War, Assad’s Fall, West Asian Geopolitics and Implications for India
The expansion of the Gaza war into Lebanon and the Gulf, Hezbollah, Ansar Allah (a Yemeni militant group commonly known as the Houthis), Iraqi militias and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps overshadowed reconciliation initiatives (such as Abraham). agreement). It was argued that Reconciliation efforts were primarily driven by a desire to focus on economic growth and developmentBut the Gaza war moved this focus down the priority list.
The recent fall of the Assad regime in Syria has further complicated the situation, with significant implications for India. Besides being home to over 9 million Indian diaspora (a major source of remittances), West Asia is an important source of energy imports, trade, investment and defense for India.
For example, the GCC nations alone account for more than $150 billion in bilateral trade annually and are a significant source of energy imports. In 2023, India received US$ 120 billion in remittances from around the world, and nearly 30 percent of remittances originated in the Gulf region. Moreover, despite diversification efforts, India’s dependence on the region for hydrocarbons remains at 55-60 percent by 2023-24.
Therefore, prolonged instability and wider conflict will threaten the security and well-being of Indians, cause huge losses in remittances and affect India’s economy. Trade and commerce deficit and impact on energy imports will be other serious concerns for India. Also, India has made efforts to promote regional connectivity, trade and commerce through initiatives such as India-Middle East-Europe Economic CorridorThe International North-South Transport Corridor and Chabahar Port emphasize the restoration of stability in the region.
Expressing concern over the deteriorating security situation in the region, India has emphasized on peaceful resolution of the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy. India’s position on the Gaza war It is consistent with the historic position for a two-state solution achieved through diplomatic negotiations within the framework of resolutions passed at the United Nations. However, a ceasefire in the Gaza war seems elusive, but it raises a pertinent question – Will environmental protection be prioritized over traditional military goals?
Climate change, women and gender equality
It would not be an exaggeration to say that issues such as climate change, women and gender equality have been eclipsed by high politics issues such as conflict, war and diplomacy. Recently completed COP29 climate talks in BakuAzerbaijan, ended in disappointment for developing countries. The key agreement negotiated at the conference pledged to mobilize $300 billion annually in climate finance for developing countries—significantly less than the $1.3 trillion they are demanding to meet their needs.
more importantly, COP29 faced criticism for the underrepresentation of women and the lack of gender-responsive financing targets. While $300 million was pledged, no specific targets or measurable allocations for gender-responsive policies were set. Similarly, the failure to adopt a bus transition work program at COP29 highlighted a critical gap in addressing the disproportionate burden of unpaid care work on women exacerbated by climate change.
Shock draws our attention to the strong link between women’s empowerment and effective climate action. Addressing climate change and promoting gender equality are important steps towards building a more inclusive and equitable world order. In that regard, v. India’s push for reforms in global institutions In global governance such as the United Nations Security Council, multilateral development banks, and the World Trade Organization, it has become an important issue to promote fairness and equity and build an inclusive world order.
Thus, as 2024 approaches, the global community struggles to navigate the effects of global conflict and war, geopolitical shifts, and climate change in an effort to achieve a just world order. The year 2025 will be 30 years Beijing Declaration and Platform for Actionwhich recognized women’s rights as human rights and envisioned a world in which women had the same rights and opportunities as men.
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