The Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump race finally came to an end when Harris called Donald Trump on Wednesday afternoon and accepted the election. Alan Lichtman and Nate Silver does not end. Both of them were wrong in predicting the election – Alan Lichtman predicted that Kamala Harris would win and Nate Silver predicted that Trump would win, but in a very close fight. Trump’s victory was by a large margin – a possibility rejected by all polls. But after Alan Lichtman admitted he was wrong, he said, “Unlike Nate Silver, who will try to make out that he didn’t see the election coming, I’ll admit I was wrong. I’ll be evaluating the polls and the keys. This Thursday at 9pm on @allanlichtmanyoutube in my In a live event.
Lichtman correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 elections and earned the moniker ‘Nostradamus’ but failed to predict Donald Trump’s powerful comeback. On election night, he hosted a nearly six-hour podcast breaking down the election results, and by the end of it he was surprised by the election results.
Alan Lichtman’s predictions are not based on polls but on 13 keys he created in 1981. The keys were developed based on an analysis of trends in presidential campaigns since the 1860s: if 8 or more keys are correct for a party, it will win. election The 13 keys are party mandate, competition, power, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma, challenger charisma.
On election night, Nate Silver announced that he was pulling his prediction model because it “wasn’t capturing the story well this election night.” Nate Silver washed his hands of his last prediction that it would be a close fight and upped his October prediction again, detailing 24 reasons why Trump could win the election. “We lack an explanation as to why he returned to the White House,” Silver wrote.
Also Read: US Election Results 2024