Trump Presidency: What It Could Mean for India
After Donald Trump took an incomparable lead over Kamala Harris in the presidential election, India’s foreign relations should take a collective breath.
The implications of any new US president for the world are usually profound. But in a world characterized by strategic turmoil and two wars (between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Hamas), the geopolitical implications of a Trump presidency will be analyzed to death in the coming weeks.
Three questions are important. Is the world likely to be more or less peaceful as a result of Trump’s ascension? Will America choose to become more inward-looking or interventionist? And will the US strike a deal with its major strategic rival, China?
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For India, the critical issue is how Trump’s presidency will impact what has so far been routinely described as the most consequential. Strategic partnership of the 21st
Trump Presidency: What It Could Mean for India
After Donald Trump took an incomparable lead over Kamala Harris in the presidential election, India’s foreign relations should take a collective breath.
The implications of any new US president for the world are usually profound. But in a world characterized by strategic turmoil and two wars (between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Hamas), the geopolitical implications of a Trump presidency will be analyzed to death in the coming weeks.
Three questions are important. Is the world likely to be more or less peaceful as a result of Trump’s ascension? Will America choose to become more inward-looking or interventionist? And will the US strike a deal with its major strategic rival, China?
Our request to you: keep our journalism alive
We’re a small, dedicated team at The Probe, committed to deep, slow journalism that dives deeper than the daily headlines. We cannot continue our important work without your support. Please consider contributing to our social impact projects: support us or become a research member. Even your small contribution will help keep our journalism alive.
For India, the critical issue is how Trump’s presidency will impact what has so far been routinely described as the most consequential. Strategic partnership of the 21st century.
Modi and Trump’s ‘connection’
The Prime Minister in 2019 was Narendra Modi excited in Houston, Texas, where he told the crowd that his government was “well connected” to Trump. In the same breath, he predicted a Trump re-election in 2020, which of course should not happen.
However, Trump 2.0 will currency There are both opportunities and challenges for US-India relations, particularly in trade, immigration, military cooperation, and diplomacy.
Despite public announcements by both the Joe Biden and Narendra Modi establishments, the partnership is rhetorical, serious stress The revelation comes in the wake of the alleged assassination attempt on US-based Sikh activist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun and recent political developments in Bangladesh.
All eyes in New Delhi will surely be on how Trump’s presidency, which takes office in January 2025, will address these two thorny issues.
Benefit to India?
Trump’s re-entry into the White House is actually considered beneficial for India by the strategic community in New Delhi.
This is because India can feel that there will be no undue pressure on the insistence of a Biden president. Values-based diplomacy And there will be broad strategic convergence on terrorism and Islamic radicalism.
Modi is also said to have close personal chemistry with Trump, which is no small factor.
It soon became clear that Trump would become America’s 47th President Modi Took to XHe said he was “looking forward” to strengthening India-US ties “in technology, defense, energy, space and many other areas”.
But India will come under pressure on the trade and industrial policy front. Trump has always told India Abuser of business rules And sometimes it does equal to India and China are in this number. So India should be ready for concessions in this regard.
America’s relationship with China also affects its relationship with India. As the US views India as a counterweight to China in Asia, any rapprochement initiated by Trump with China will affect strategic options for India and vice versa.
The recent slight thaw in Sino-Indian relations can be seen against this background, when it already “Skepticism“New Delhi-Beijing Discord and Military Solution in Washington as a Consequence disconnection along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
It is still unclear what this means for the US-led Quad and the Indo-Pacific that was originally intended. Countering China’s economic and military power.
The Biden administration has been cautious about deepening India’s ties with Russia, especially in the backdrop of the recent BRICS summit in Kazan that featured non-Western countries. Willing to engage With Russia strategically important as a supplier of military hardware and energy.
Russia factor
Russia Ukraine War and Americadecisive actionA case against 19 Indian companies accused of “supporting Russia” in the conflict over their alleged role in supplying “dual-use” equipment has cooled Washington-New Delhi relations to some extent.
However, a lot depends on whether Trump will be prepared to counter the Indian stance.”Transactions and companies are not in violation“of domestic law.
The most interesting thing to watch is how Trump deals with China. Trump is unpredictable so he may get tough with China at the risk of provoking the latter taking revenge Or become the biggest deal maker compared to Xi Jinping to prove to the world that he is a statesman.
For its part, China is averse to unpredictability, so it cannot be too thrilled by Trump’s victory. China, it’s safe to say, will too Think twice Before taking military action in Taiwan, mainly because it is impossible to predict how Trump will react to this situation.
Regarding the war in Ukraine and Gaza, Trump said that he can end the war in Ukraine.in one day“.
The European Union fears this could play into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hands, but Trump thinks he can’t do anything to Putin. Regardless, it may be time for a diplomatic solution in Ukraine.
On Gaza, Trump might be expected to support Israel and thus Benjamin Netanyahu, but he is smart enough to understand the continuation of the war. Not in America’s interest. So, he could ask Netanyahu for a cease-fire deal and perhaps enjoy more success than Biden did.
The future of Indo-US relations, during Trump’s second term in the White House, will draw heavily from the bilateral relationship that existed during his first presidency.
are friction points — on immigration and trade — but much will depend on Trump’s “transactional bipartisanship.” Also, any “to softenAmerica’s stance towards Russia may benefit India on diplomatic and geopolitical fronts, not just on trade and related economic issues.
All things considered, there will never be a dull moment in Trump’s presidency – whether on the global stage or in US-India relations.
Professor Mohan Kumar Dean, Strategic and International Initiatives at Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University, Sonepat, Haryana.
Originally published under Creative Commons by 360 information™.