Trump 2.0: The Second Presidency and Its Challenges for India
As Donald Trump begins his second term as president, the political and geopolitical landscape of the United States is poised for a major shift. Trump’s return signals a potential shift in America’s realpolitik, which could bring about a much-needed recalibration of its domestic and international strategies. This is in contrast to the Biden administration, where US-India relations and the pace of broader US foreign policy were often criticized as overly idealistic and lacking in pragmatic realism.
From Biden to Trump 2.0: A shift in strategy
Donald Trump’s dramatic exit from power in 2021 paves the way for Joe Biden’s administration to redefine America’s role on the global stage. Biden’s presidency took a measured and restrained approach to international politics, which inadvertently allowed emerging powers like China and Russia to gain leverage. This restraint contributed to the strengthening of an informal alliance among US adversaries, colloquially known as the “PRICK” bloc — which includes Russia, China, North Korea, Iran and Pakistan.
Domestically, Biden’s administration also faced criticism for several missteps. Policies such as the US bailout, while ambitious, increased inflationary pressures, straining the economy. In addition, Biden’s energy strategy — specifically the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline — weakened the U.S. energy sector, especially during disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war.
The policy failures that defined the Biden era
Two major domestic policy failures stand out from Biden’s tenure. The first was the Build Back Better World (B3W) initiative, which was envisioned in 2021 as a counter to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and as a tool to stabilize regional economies post-Covid-19. Despite its promise, the plan failed due to internal party disagreements, culminating in a legislative gridlock that halted its progress.
The second failure was the alarming rise in the crime rate during Biden’s presidency. A Justice Department report cited by Fox News revealed a dramatic increase in violent crimes under the Biden-Harris administration, undermining the administration’s credibility on public safety issues.
These socio-economic challenges, coupled with the waning of US influence on the global stage, underscore the need for restoration. Trump 2.0 and his return to the White House bring the possibility of redefining America’s domestic policies and regaining its geopolitical dominance.
US Realpolitik: A Strategic Reset Under Trump 2.0
Real politics in the United States has long been shaped by two central features: maintaining influence and competing with rising global powers. During the Cold War, America’s deep state, particularly the CIA, played a major role in pushing back against Soviet influence using covert operations and strategic maneuvers. However, the course of American realpolitik was not solely defined by this deep state. Democratic presidents, particularly John F. Kennedy and Gerald Ford, significantly influenced the nation’s global outlook, sometimes even challenging the interests of the intelligence community.
For example, the Kennedy presidency was marked by reluctance to use the CIA as a primary instrument of foreign policy. His decision to cut his budget hampered the agency’s effectiveness in shaping US foreign strategy in the early years of the Cold War. Similarly, Ford’s pursuit of a Soviet-American détente drew considerable criticism even from within his administration. His defense secretary, James Schlesinger, was a vocal critic of the policy, which many analysts viewed as a misstep. Détente is now seen as a strategic failure, especially after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, a direct result of policy failures. Ford faced domestic fallout when the CIA’s secret surveillance program, Operation CHAOS, was exposed, undermining public confidence in the agency’s operations.
Bill Clinton adopted the same “measured” response as his predecessors in trying to recalibrate post-Cold War US foreign policy. His administration focused primarily on domestic policy and trade, underpinned by the doctrine of expansion, which aimed to promote democracy and the American market globally. However, the doctrine led to notable failures, such as the inability of the US to restore democracy in Somalia after Operation Gothic Serpent and the failure of the Clinton administration to intervene effectively in the 1994 Rwandan genocide. The 1993 failure to oust Haiti’s military dictator Raoul Cedras further demonstrated the limitations of this “measurement” approach.
These historical blunders echo throughout the tenure of the Biden administration. Biden’s attempt to reset US strategy with a firm, strategic post-Trump approach was miscalculated. His renegotiation of the JCPOA with Iran, chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, and blunders in Europe and the Middle East weakened America’s geopolitical position, reminiscent of the Cold War and failures during the Clinton presidency. Trump 2.0 promises a more assertive and strategically focused response to many global challenges.
Trump 2.0 offers the possibility of easing tensions within the transatlantic security framework, giving European nations greater autonomy to determine their own strategic and defense paths. Under Biden, America’s involvement in European affairs has caused friction, particularly with France, with Washington’s extensive involvement creating tension. Critics may argue that Trump’s assertive response could risk abandoning Ukraine, but such an approach could also allow the U.S. to focus on strengthening European security and countering Russia’s growing influence.
Trump’s first presidency used a firm strategy to effectively manage the changing geopolitical landscape. His administration kept China in check and stopped Russia from doing too much damage to US relations. These strategic adjustments are expected to continue in Trump 2.0, especially in the Middle East. The space given to Iran by the Biden administration is likely to shrink under Trump, enabling the US to take a tougher stance against Tehran and rebuild strategic ties with key Middle Eastern powers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. As Trump’s second term unfolds, the world will be watching closely to see how the US recalibrates its geopolitical priorities in the face of an evolving global crisis.
The idea that Donald Trump will dismantle the so-called “Deep State” is a widely inflated argument. The reality is that it is impossible to root out the deep state within America. Instead, it is essential for the organization to maintain a minimal level of functional relationship with the executive branch, as it plays a vital role in steering American realpolitik in a firm, strategic direction. During Trump’s first term, the Deep State operated with minimal functional ties. Even though Trump appointed Gina Haspel, the first woman to serve as deputy director of the CIA and later as CIA director, in 2018 despite strong opposition from senators, it was clear that the deep state continued to operate without major disruption under Trump.
Indo-US Relations: Continuity and Change under Trump 2.0
Indo-US relations, currently on a positive trajectory, are poised for further growth under Trump’s second administration. The strategic partnership between the two nations has gained significant momentum, and Trump is expected to accelerate this upward trajectory with positive changes in US policy. Unlike the Biden administration, which struggled to fully understand India’s strategic priorities, the Trump administration is likely to demonstrate a more nuanced understanding of India’s interests, particularly in key areas of mutual interest. This shift will help to overcome some of the trust issues that have arisen in recent years from the US’s assertive stance on India’s internal affairs.
However, there is no possibility that there will be much change in the trade relations between America and India. Trump’s “America First” trade policy, as evidenced by his approach to Harley Davidson bikes and high tariff issues, will complicate trade relations between the two countries. The focus will likely remain on recalibrating economic exchange to fit the broader strategic goals of both nations, but contentious issues of trade tariffs and market access will continue.
Trump 2.0 requires a recalibrated approach to address the nation’s declining influence on the global stage. This shift, from a restrained and measured approach to a more assertive strategy, will be rooted in lessons learned from past failures.