President Emmanuel Macron has vowed to stay in office until the end of his term in 2027 after Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s minority government dramatically collapsed in a historic vote in France’s National Assembly on Wednesday.
Barnier, a veteran conservative appointed by Macron only in September, has become the shortest-serving prime minister of the French Fifth Republic, which began in 1958.
The vote of no confidence came amid disagreements between the parties over government spending, but is linked to deeper issues in French politics that became apparent after snap elections called by Macron in June.
Here’s what to know about the political crisis in the world’s seventh-largest economy and what happens next.
A vote of no confidence
The vote of no confidence was to inform that the government’s budget proposal was rejected by the parliament. The draft aims to cut government spending through measures including reining in pensions and save around €60 billion through austerity measures.
However, it was unpopular on both the left and the right. Since none of the three major political blocs – left, right, and Barnier’s center-right – had a majority, the government needed the support of one of these two parliamentary groups to survive.
Anticipating a crisis, Bernier invoked Article 49.3 of the French constitution, which allows the prime minister to introduce bills without a vote through the National Assembly after deliberation by the cabinet, according to a report in Le Monde.
Which means that the only way to stop the bill from being passed was for the opposition parties to bring a motion of no confidence against the government. This they did, and succeeded.
Cohabitation problems
Much of the current instability stems from Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call a snap poll in June after right-wing parties won a significant number of votes in EU parliamentary elections that month.
The President took a political gamble, believing that voters would be less attracted to support those parties in national elections. At the time, Macron’s centre-right Ensemble coalition was the largest coalition in parliament, but no group managed to win a majority.
But instead of siding with Ensemble, voters backed left-wing parties, which won the most seats. Far-right parties, including Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, benefited at the cost of Macron’s coalition.
In France’s semi-presidential, representative parliamentary democracy, the president has the power to appoint the prime minister. After some delay, Macron formed a coalition with Barnier’s conservative Republican Party.
This angered the Left parties, who believed they had the mandate of the people as the largest bloc. Although there is no legal obligation on the president to appoint the leader of the largest party in parliament, leaders of the party with popular support are usually appointed to avoid public backlash.
Bernier’s appointment led to what is known in France as “cooperation” – in which the prime minister and president belong to different parties. Cohabitation periods are unusual, but not unheard of in France – and because the two leaders represent different political agendas and views, such periods have typically seen clashes between parliament and the president over the passage of legislation.
What comes next?
Macron said that the name of the new prime minister will be announced in the coming days. Sébastien Lecornu, François Berrou and Xavier Bertrand, to name a few, have been floated in the French media as possible candidates for most centrist and center-right leadership posts.
Bernier will lead a caretaker government until then. A special law will be introduced in mid-December to enable states to levy taxes and avoid government shutdowns from next year based on existing rules. The new government will then prepare the 2025 Budget Act.
Given the deep divisions in parliament, there is no guarantee that the new prime minister will face similar challenges. However, according to the rules under the French constitution, the next parliamentary elections cannot be held until July 2025.
Marta Lorimer, a politics lecturer at Cardiff University in the UK, told France 24, “France’s fiscal stability is at stake… France is effectively going into the new year without a budget and without a clear majority to pass one. Although it is possible to extend the 2024 budget to avoid a government shutdown, this means that no new measures can be introduced, be it cuts or spending, and it is not clear how – or when – a new budget can be passed.
Concerns have also been expressed about France’s economy and high debt. Ratings agency Moody’s said on Wednesday that the collapse of the government “reduces the prospect of consolidating public finances”.