Dec 17, 2024 07:09 IST
First published: Dec 17, 2024 at 07:09 IST
India’s population has reached its demographic prime. About 67.3 percent of our population is between the ages of 15-59, a demographic advantage that will continue for the next three decades. About 26 percent of the population is under 14, and only 7 percent is over 65, compared to 17 percent in the US and 21 percent in Europe. By 2030, India’s working-age population will reach 68.9 percent, with an average age of 28.4 years and a dependency ratio of just 31.2 percent. In absolute numbers, India will have the world’s largest workforce with 1.04 billion working-age people.
But these large demographic numbers can only translate into dividends with higher productivity that creates wealth mainly through high technology, innovative information technology, high-end new-age services, R&D driven innovation, healthcare and life sciences. Does our demographic dividend have the potential to generate this high productivity and wealth now and achieve our $7 trillion GDP target by 2030? Obviously, this ability can only be developed with the right education and skills, which require cognitive strength and physical health. Both begin to develop in the fetal stage and continue to develop through childhood and adolescence into adulthood with proper health, nutrition and educational care. Only then can the demographic dividend yield higher education capacity, higher skills and qualifications to meet contemporary job requirements.
According to NFHS 5, among our current demographic dividend (15-49 years), only 41 percent of women and 50.2 percent of men have more than 10 years of schooling; 57 percent of women and 25 percent of men are anemic; And 18.7 percent of women and 16.2 percent of men have a body mass index below normal. Not surprisingly, despite many ongoing skills programs, employers are unable to find the skills they want, and unemployment rates among “educated” youth are high.
Our immediate demographic dividend, the 15-19 year old girls and boys, will form India’s workforce for the next three decades. Among them, 34 percent of girls and 35.9 percent of boys aged 15-24 have completed 12 years of education or more. 59 percent of girls and 31 percent of boys are anemic, while only 54.9 percent of girls and 52.6 percent of boys have normal BMI. The Annual Education Report (ASER) (Rural) 2023 shows that nationally, only 77 percent of 17-18 year olds can read grade 2 textbooks and 35 percent can divide. The trajectory of learning in classes V, VI, VII and VIII was relatively flat, meaning that there was little variation in learning levels within these classes.
This is our demographic dividend for the next three decades.
It’s not a very bright picture of our future demographic dividend—our children, who will enter the workforce a decade or two later. According to NFHS 5, 35.5 percent of children under 5 are stunted, 19.3 percent are stunted, 32.1 percent are underweight; And 67.1 percent of children aged 6 to 59 months are anemic. (The figure is almost 50 percent higher for the two poorest quintiles) But most surprisingly, only 11.3 percent of children aged 6-23 months receive a minimum adequate diet, an improvement from 9.6 percent as in NFHS 4. The foundation of our demographic dividend is here for the next three decades.
Medical science confirms that 90 percent of children’s brains develop before age 5, laying the physical, mental, and emotional foundations for later life. Optimal brain development is therefore the first casualty of 88.7 percent of children under two years of age, lacking minimal and adequate nutrition. India’s regular dietary deficit is well documented in national surveys. It is therefore not surprising that the resulting undernutrition, poor health and morbidity prevent children and adolescents from achieving their full cognitive and physical potential, and subsequently from acquiring the education and skills needed for a high job market.
After 2030, India will have a declining labor force population and an increasing aging population with each passing year. A growing skill-poor, asset-poor, aging population in poor health could become India’s biggest future burden.
It is unlikely that a large population will power our economy through high consumption – a large population with low education/skills will increase unemployment, and have little disposable income for high consumption. The expected flight of human capital from the weaker sections to foreign lands with scarce secondary labor is hardly the solution.
It is time for serious real-time situational analysis of our immediate and future demographic dividend and redesign of our policy framework to strengthen it through the life cycle. A strong foundation of good nutrition, health and education enables our demographic dividend to capitalize on future economic and job-market opportunities.
The author is a former Secretary to the Government of India
Why should you buy our membership?
You want to be the smartest in the room.
You want access to our award-winning journalism.
You don’t want to be confused and misinformed.
Choose your subscription package