Syria Civil War: How a Militarized Society with a War-Ready Army Can Collapse in a Week?
After successfully defeating Islamic State and Turkish-backed rebels in 2016, Syrian Arab Army fighters were considered a formidable fighting force that had built a reputation for influencing events in the Middle East. On November 27, when Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city, fell without much of a fight to the Islamic State and an organization cloned by US and Israeli covert operatives from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a variant of al-Qaeda, led by Abu Muhammad al-Golani, a large The question is: How did a nation with such a powerful, battle-hardened military fall apart like a cookie?
Was the military forced to stand down to allow HTS and its Islamist masters to take over Syria without a fight? It appears that the pace at which the army refuses to resist the takeover of HTS and the Salvation Front, which rules Idlib province, indicates some compromise at the level of the army or with President Bashar al-Assad. Assad allowed him to leave the country. For this reason, after the announcement of the occupation of Aleppo, one city after another began to fall. The rapid fall of President Assad was able to quickly escape with military help to Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and later Bangladesh. In all three countries, a variety of authoritarian figures ruled unchallenged by an effectively reduced opposition.
The conspiracy in Syria does not appear to be different from that in South Asian countries, but with a twist.
Not long ago, the US government announced a $10 million bounty for the head of Abu Muhammad al-Golani. Counter-terrorism experts say that if US agencies were serious about killing him, a drone would have blown him up long ago, and the bounty would have been shared. It is clear that Golani was not only allowed to live but also to dream big. He was framed as a reformist fighter who wanted to preserve the plural character of society and restore democracy in the civil war-torn nation, Syria. To glamorize the takeover, Golani’s exploits were also purged from the YouTube world, leaving no evidence of his violent past.
Syria Civil War: Why is Biden so eager to change the landscape of the Middle East?
In the interim, the CIA, Mossad, and MI6 appear to be paving the way for the ouster of Bashar al-Assad and a growing new Middle East order before new US President Donald Trump takes office. Why is current US President Joe Biden so desperate to change the landscape of the Middle East and Europe where Russia is waging war against Ukraine? Not only has Biden encouraged Israel to retaliate brutally against Hamas for daring to attack on October 7, 2023, but the Pentagon has given the Jewish state all kinds of support, including an unlimited supply of weapons and funding. With both material and moral support, Israel, under its Prime Minister Netanyahu, has not only bombed Gaza but has also gone into Lebanon in pursuit of the Shiite rebel Hezbollah. For several days, Lebanon was also bombed like Gaza. In their initial attack, Israel Defense Forces eliminated Hezbollah chief Nasrallah through relentless use of bunker-buster bombs.
Without much fuss, the Israeli Defense Forces showed accommodation after refusing to rest in Gaza despite being punished by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for engaging in genocide against Palestinians. At the time, no one knew why the Israelis had agreed to a cease-fire. Only after the HTS captured Aleppo did the smoke begin to clear. It seems that while Israel, the United States and Turkey were on the hook to oust Assad, and with competing forces eyeing different parts of the country based on their own readings of history, the Middle East may not be together again. Israel has unveiled its ambitions — the Golan Heights, Mount Hermon, and more. Last heard, Israeli forces are 15 kilometers from the capital, Damascus. What would the Middle East look like if Israel occupied Syria? So what happens to Iran? The speed at which all this is happening makes analysts gasp. What to write and what to leave?
What has not really been discussed is the impact of the Syrian civil war on Russia, which is at war with Ukraine. US sanctions and military support from NATO forces have squeezed Moscow. Moscow is deeply invested in Assad’s persistence as the Russian navy has ports in Tartus and Latakia. Thousands of Russians also live in Syria. Taking Syria out of control means sending a message to Russia that it will be hurt if it doesn’t back down from Ukraine and Crimea. Russia has its back against the wall, with social media awash with conspiracy theories about how Assad was dumped by Russian President Putin because he can’t be trusted. If there was any merit in it, why did Russia give asylum to Asad? What is clear is that Syrian President Assad knew his time was up. He tried to save his position by contacting middlemen who asked Syria to leave Iran. Some unconfirmed reports claim that Iranian intelligence had told Assad about the threat from Idlib and Turkey, but the Syrian president ignored it. The army marching in Golani seems to have softened him up. Some social media posts attributed their information to Iranian sources that Tehran felt Assad was playing another game and had no desire to fight the incoming troops.
Syria Civil War: What Next?
It is now clear that Israel and Turkey are taking advantage of the Syrian civil war to further their long-standing agenda. Israel is consolidating its position and systematically neutralizing any remaining Syrian military capability. It has targeted and destroyed chemical weapons and ammunition stores. Israel is ready to capture Damascus without any resistance from Syria. Whether that happens depends largely on how President Joe Biden chooses to approach the issue.
Turkey, meanwhile, is playing a complicated game. Russia seems to be getting sidetracked by Turkey and its shrewd leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Driven by aspirations of a new Ottoman revival, Turkey is eager to expand its regional influence, with Syria serving as a first step. Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia is deeply concerned about these developments, as they disrupt the regional balance and provide excessive leverage to Turkey, whose ambitions may be unchecked.
These changes in Syria will no doubt pose major challenges for incoming US President Donald Trump, especially regarding his stance on the “deep state”, which some claim is behind the endless global conflict.
For current US President Joe Biden, the question remains: What will he do in his final months in office? Will he take further steps to weaken Russia before his term ends?
This article first appeared on Sanjay Kapoor’s Substack. Here is the original link to the source. Click here to follow Sanjay Kapoor on Substack.