After driving a post-pandemic rebound in international student numbers on US campuses, India is now seeing a sharp decline, with US State Department data showing a 38 percent drop in F-1 student visas issued to Indians in the first nine months of 2024. Compared to the same period last year.
An analysis by The Indian Express Monthly nonimmigrant visa reports available on the Bureau of Consular Affairs’ website show that F-1 visas issued to Indian students have reached their lowest level since the pandemic.
From January to September this year, 64,000 visas were issued — a significant drop from 1,03,495 in the same month of 2023. Figures show that 65,235 visas were issued in 2021 and 93,181 in 2022 during the same period. As of 2020, only 6,646 F-1 visas were issued to Indians in the first nine months.
The decline is not unique to Indian students, although it is more pronounced. For example, Chinese students, who now represent the second-largest international group in the U.S., also saw a decline in visa issuances, but only by 8 percent in 2024. A total of 73,781 F-1 visas were issued to Chinese. students from January to September this year, down from 80,603 last year, though still higher than the 52,034 released in 2022.
The F-1 visa is a non-immigrant category for students attending educational institutions in the US, while the M-1 visa covers professional and non-academic programs. The Indian Express analysis focuses on F-1 visas, which account for more than 90 percent of US student visas issued annually.
The decline in issuance of F-1s to Indian students assumes significance against the backdrop of two recent milestones achieved by Indians in American higher education. In the 2022-2023 fiscal year (October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023), India overtook China in issuing new student visas for the first time. China became the largest source of total international students that year, but that also changed in 2023-24, when Indians became the largest international student group at US universities, according to the latest Open Doors 2024 report.
The Open Doors 2024 report showed that there were 331,000 Indian students in the US in 2023-24 (29.4 percent of the nearly 1.1 million international students in the US), compared to 277,000 Chinese students in the same year (24.6 ). percentage of the international student population in the US).
When asked about the sharp decline in issuance of F-1 visas to Indians and whether it was due to lower applications or higher rejection rates, a US State Department spokesperson did not comment specifically on the data. Instead, the spokesperson noted that “individual monthly issuance reports do not necessarily provide accurate issuance totals for the financial year”.
However, there is no significant difference in data between the US State Department’s past annual visa issuance figures and monthly visa issuance numbers for the same period. For example, the Department’s annual figures available in the ‘Detail Table’ of Nonimmigrant Visa Issuance website for FY 2021-2022 (October 1, 2021 to September 30, 2022) show a total of 1,15,115 F-1 visas issued to Indian students, while The cumulative number from the monthly visa report shows 1,15,204. Similarly, the annual figure for the financial year 2023 (October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023) was 1,30,730 student visas issued to Indians, as against 1,30,839 in the monthly reports.
While the exact reason for the decline is unclear, it has been discovered that 20,000 student visa appointment slots reserved for Indian nationals were not used during the peak visa application season this year (May, June and July). This, The Indian Express learnt, points to a possible shift on the demand side, which has been interpreted as demand stabilization after the post-Covid rebound optic.
Overseas education consultants in India point to student concerns related to visa processing challenges, including long wait times for interviews, as another possible reason for the decline in F-1 visa issuances this year. Viva Kagzi, CEO of ReachIvy.com, noted that while the US remains a top destination, many students are looking to options such as Canada, the UK and Germany to keep their options open. “The gap between the demand and supply of visa slots, coupled with a tighter interview evaluation, may explain the reduced F-1 visa numbers. The journey from application to visa approval has become more challenging, but it’s not impossible,” she said.
Piyush Kumar, regional director for South Asia at IDP Education, said: “US immigration has placed more emphasis on attracting high-quality and genuine students, which may explain the gradual decline in visa approvals for students applying to less suitable institutions.”
On visa processing delays, a US State Department spokesperson said they have dedicated “significant resources to improving wait times in India” and are committed to getting their staff “the tools, resources and support they need to reduce appointment wait times”.
“The waiting time does not mean that people are not issued visas. They simply reflect the extremely high level of demand for US visas. In fact, some of our busiest visa issuing posts — including India — have broken visa issuance records in recent years. As we increase staffing and take advantage of technology and other innovations to improve processing and reduce interview wait times, we have been able to add visa interview appointments for visitors, students and other visa categories,” the spokesperson said.
Every student applicant coming to India for a first-time visa interview this year is known to have managed to secure one. However, US officials are considering making available earlier to block student visa interview appointment slots for the peak months of April, May, June and July, possibly before January. The move aims to help students make early decisions about pursuing higher education in the US and prevent them from being discouraged by the unavailability of future slots at that time.