Who is fighting in Syria and why? Why are so many foreign governments involved, from the US to Russia to Iran to Turkey? How did Assad’s regime survive for so long, and what will happen now that he is gone?
And what is India’s attitude towards Assad? Let’s explain.
Why is Syria in the middle of a civil war?
Since 1971, Syria has been under the control of Hafez al-Assad, an all-powerful president seen by many as a dictator. After Hafez’s death in 2000, his son Bashar took over. In 2011, when the Arab Spring saw the fall of dictators in West Asia, protests also broke out against Assad.
Assad belongs to the Alawite sect of Shia Islam. Many in Syria believed that power and resources were concentrated in the hands of the Alawites while the Sunni majority remained. Assad opened up the economy after coming to power, but the benefits were largely confined to the elite. Thus, when the protests began – initially peacefully – inflation and unemployment were the major issues.
Assad’s regime cracked down on the protesters, and the movement soon turned into an armed civil war. There were many factions among the fighters – with various external supporters – and many objectives, but forcing Assad to step down was a largely common goal.
The rebels took control of the northeastern and northwestern regions of the country. However, Assad controlled large parts of Syria. This was made possible in 2015 when Russia provided air support and Assad’s forces, with the help of Iran, defeated the rebels. Since 2020, the civil war has been a constant conflict until November 27 when anti-government forces launched a swift and surprisingly effective campaign.
Who fought and why?
The group that recently captured Damascus is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. HTS was founded in 2011 as al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria, Jabhat al-Nusra. In 2016, it broke off to form Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS), which stands for the liberation of al-Sham, or the Levant (a sub-region of the Middle East bordering the Mediterranean including Jordan, Syria). Lebanon, Israel and Palestine). HTS wanted to overthrow Assad and establish a Sunni-Islamic regime.
Other important players are the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a collection of Kurdish militias that want more autonomy and rights for the Kurds. They are not Assad’s main enemies.
Next is the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, which opposes both Assad and the Kurds.
Among foreign players, Iran and Russia have backed Assad, and Lebanon’s Hezbollah has provided him with significant combat support. The US and Turkey have backed anti-Assad forces, although Turkey’s beef is mainly with the Kurds, including those within its own borders.
Syria under Assad was a staunch supporter of Palestine, so Israel attacked it as well. To understand more about fighters, read this detailed explanation by Bashir Ali Abbas.
What happened in the last two weeks, what will happen now?
With Iran, Hezbollah and Russia distracted by their own wars in Gaza and Lebanon and Ukraine, respectively, Assad lost critical support. When the rebels ran into the country, they faced less effective resistance from the official Syrian army.
However, it would be premature to say whether Assad’s fall is the end of the Syrian civil war or just another chapter.
While Assad was undoubtedly unpopular, many believed in him as a Sunni Islamic fundamentalist and champion of minority rights.
Assad never wanted to be the leader of Syria. He was an ophthalmologist in London when his elder brother and father’s successor, Basil, died in a car accident in 1994. After he came to power in 2000, there were early, nascent signs that his regime would not be as authoritarian as his. father’s His marriage to London-born investment banker Asma Akhras further cemented his liberal image. But his response to the 2011 protests, and the growing brutality of the repression, ended all hope of a ‘Damascus Spring’.
Assad’s marriage to London-born investment banker Asma Akhras further enhanced his liberal image. (Photo: Wikimedia Commons)
However, al-Qaeda has a violent past with the group that defeated him. Although HTS has recently taken a more lenient, conciliatory stance towards minorities, many fear their victory will turn Syria into an ‘Afghanistan in the Mediterranean’.
Russia has denied active involvement in the latest Syrian crisis, and Joe Biden’s administration has shown no signs of meddling either. American President Donald Trump tweeted on Saturday, saying, ‘This is not our fight. Let it play out. Don’t get involved!”
How was India’s relationship with Bashar al-Assad?
India had friendly relations with Syria under Assad. In fact, the sixth round of India-Syria Foreign Office Consultations took place in New Delhi on November 29.
The Ministry of External Affairs then said in a press release, “India and Syria enjoy warm and friendly relations based on historical and civilizational ties. India has been a deep development partner for Syria and is also actively involved in capacity building of Syrian youth. Both countries also cooperate in various multilateral fora.” Today’s discussion will contribute to strengthening India-Syria bilateral partnership.
December 7th MEA asked all Indians in Syria Be careful and leave if you can.