Ravi Warning: Possible weather problems, responsibility lies with the government

Rabi (winter-spring) crops, especially wheat, are currently vulnerable to mercury spikes in March, when they are in the final grain formation and filling stage. But in the last two years, in October and November, temperatures have been above average at the time of planting. According to India Meteorological Department records, the average minimum and average temperature for this month of October was the highest for this month. November also recorded the second and third highest and average temperatures respectively. All this has affected the overall rabi planting, which was behind till mid-November. As winter finally sets in there has been a recovery. But this is unlikely to help mustard or potato, whose sowing window closes in the first fortnight of November.

This raises concerns in the production of rabi crops, which require relatively low temperatures for proper germination and vegetative growth. Late planting should not affect yields in wheat and most other crops (except the two previously mentioned), however, conditional on extended winters and any “Ides of March” heat waves causing premature ripening. The hope here is from La Nina, which most global weather models predict will develop by the end of this month, continuing through January-March. La Nina events usually bring abundant rainfall and colder-than-normal winters to India. The IMD, on its part, has warned of above normal minimum and maximum temperatures in “most parts of the country” during the coming winter season (December-February). This adds to the uncertain picture. This was in contrast to a few months ago, when a bumper Rabi on top of a good kharif crop looked likely — extra monsoon rains helped fill major dam reservoirs and recharge groundwater.